Regarding the possibility of repeating the action during the current discharge cycle. It can be exp

Can we expect in this context of political liberalization? Or these processes 3m automotive lead to the strengthening of the regime? 3m automotive Possible in order to preserve the independence of democracy?
Karbalevich: "Previous experience warming Belarusian-European relations, especially during the dialogue of 2008-2010, indicates that at such times the Lukashenko regime is forced to go to a certain, albeit cosmetic, social and political liberalization. Then release political prisoners. For example, during the 2010 presidential elections the opposition could relatively freely organize his campaign.
Among experts, opposition politicians, civil society activists there - building on this experience - a view that is now improving relations between Belarus and the West will lead to some domestic political liberalization. Therefore, from this point of view should be welcomed 3m automotive process of detente between Minsk and Brussels. And whether and in this time? "
Yuri Hubarevich: "Compared 3m automotive with 2008, the situation has changed dramatically. 3m automotive While the main item on the agenda of relations between Belarus and the West was the question of democratization in the country, reforms. Today events in Ukraine dictate a new agenda. First of all, it is a question of neutrality to preserve the independence of Belarus. Democratization, political prisoners are not discarded, but fade into the background. "
Yuri Chavusau: "First of all, concerning the period 2008-2010, I would refrain 3m automotive from using the term" liberalization ". Then there were the point moves, but systemic change has occurred. It is more appropriate to use the term relative to the period "detente".
Regarding the possibility of repeating the action during the current discharge cycle. It can be expected that the most brutal forms of repression will not be used during the process of dialogue with the West.
But as long as no changes are seen. Is that just released Ales Bialiatski. In the first half of 2014 the number of detained opponents of the regime increased, and a record since the days of 2011, when there were protests in the campaign "Revolution through a social network."
Karbalevich: "Indeed, the process of thawing relations between Belarus and the West allegedly began. But, in contrast to past experience, political prisoners are not released any other signs of internal 3m automotive liberalization is not visible.
General Secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation Sharan Burrow, who also visited Minsk, expressed shock over the worsening 3m automotive discrimination against Free Trade Unions of Belarus, speaks of "slavery" in labor relations.
G. Hubarevich movement "For Freedom", which you are actively committed to improving 3m automotive relations with the west of the existing regime with the EU. But if this process is not accompanied by the political thaw, it will only strengthen the regime. "
Hubarevich: "I 3m automotive would have said that we do not advocate for better relations with the West, the existing regime and against isolation of Belarus. After all, today Belarus is in the sphere of influence of Russia, which began to behave aggressively. From the point of view of independence of Belarus would be wrong to keep such a situation. Therefore, we have to sacrifice something.
In the EU, there is no mechanism to influence the Lukashenko 3m automotive regime towards democratization. And the case of Ukraine, 3m automotive we see that the West through their actions can not stop Putin. Only by the society itself can withstand the pressure of Russia. Ukrainians have proved it. Only if the Belarusian society matured, the possibility 3m automotive of change. Hope you need for yourself, rather than external factors. "
Karbalevich: "But is not there a certain contradiction? Improved relations with the West Lukashenko regime strengthens this mode. That, in turn, leads to a weakening of civil society, the maturity and strength you want as a factor of change. "
Chavusau: "Now there will be less of European politicians who are willing to risk their reputation for re-Belarusian regime. Rather, the position of the West will come from the fact that the preservation of an authoritarian regime here can give up to strengthen the independence of Belarus from Russia.
You can only talk about long-term changes. I agree with Mr. Hubarevich that changes in Belarus will be happening inside the country. Although, of course, have the weight and the external factors. If, for example, 3m automotive will begin a new international wave of democratization, then the changes will take place in Belarus easier. "
Karbalevich: "With the Ukrainian 3m automotive experience follows another unpleasant thesis. The weakening 3m automotive of the authoritarian regime, strengthening the democratic opposition led to increasing threats to the independence of Belarus from Russia. That is, Moscow may repeat here the Ukrainian scenario. "
Hubarevich: "There are risks, and we must take them into account. Now Russia is really dramatically demonstrates the desire to control the situation in the region by force. We must prepare